Posters

      Decreased smoking-attributable deaths in Germany with smoke-free products and tobacco control measures: a modeling study

      Rytsar, R.; Nussbaum, A. K.; Tokic, M.; Lee, P. N.; Fry, J. S.

      Conference date
      Nov 20, 2024
      Conference name

      ISPOR Europe 2024
      Topic
      Summary

      OBJECTIVES: Smoke-free products (SFPs) emit fewer toxicants than cigarettes. Smokers who completely switch have reduced exposure, which is likely to translate into lower risk of four smoking-related disease (SRDs; lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke). We estimated the hypothetical population health impact of introducing SFPs (heated tobacco products [HTPs] and e-cigarettes [ECIGs]) and/or tobacco control measures (marketing ban, single price increase, plain packaging, minimum legal age 21) in Germany over a 40-year period (1995–2035).

      METHODS: A previously described population health impact model was applied. The hypothetical population aged 10–79 was followed for 40 years under a NULL scenario (no SFPs or control measures) and various alternative scenarios (introducing SFPs and/or control measures). Product usage patterns were calculated, and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from the above-mentioned SRDs were estimated. The model assumes that a population fully transitioning to SFPs would have risk reductions in the range of 80–95% of that achieved by quitting.

      RESULTS: We estimated 1.58 million SADs without the introduction of SFPs or control measures. Had all smokers quit in 1995, SADs would have been reduced by 44%. In a scenario where the proportion of SFP users increased from 0% in 1995 to 15% (HTPs) and 36.4% (ECIGs) by 2005, SADs were reduced by 17.8%, representing 40% of the effect of immediate cessation. Reductions were lower (0.06–3.7%) for the tobacco control measures considered. Combining the above-described SFP scenario with plain packaging reduced SADs by 20.3%.

      CONCLUSIONS: Based on our assumptions, the results suggest that introducing SFPs into the tobacco market in Germany in 1995 would have led to substantial mortality reductions over the following 40 years in the evaluated scenarios. These reductions were evaluated to be larger than those associated with introducing any of the four tobacco control measures considered.

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      Reduced Risk Products ("RRPs”) is the term we use to refer to products that present, are likely to present, or have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continuing smoking. PMI has a range of RRPs in various stages of development, scientific assessment and commercialization. All of our RRPs are smoke-free products that deliver nicotine with far lower quantities of harmful and potentially harmful constituents than found in cigarette smoke.