Posters

      Estimated public health impact of Italian smokers switching to smoke-free products: a population health impact modeling study

      Tirelli, U.; Romana, R.; Tokic, M.; Pellegatti, T.; di Luzio Paparatti, U.

      Conference date
      Nov 20, 2024
      Conference name

      ISPOR Europe 2024
      Topic
      Summary

      OBJECTIVES: Cigarette smoking is associated with lung cancer, ischemic heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke. Smoke-free products (SFPs) do not combust tobacco and therefore substantially reduce user exposure to harmful or potentially harmful constituents compared to cigarettes. We estimated the potential Italian public health impact of switching from cigarette smoking to SFP use in terms of reductions in smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) from the four above-mentioned diseases over a 30-year period (2010–2040).

      METHODS: The Population Health Impact Model (PHIM) was used. A population of individuals aged 10–79 was observed over a follow-up period in a scenario where no SFPs were introduced (NULL scenario) and three alternative scenarios. Two alternative scenarios describe market penetration of heated tobacco products (HTPs) and e-cigarettes (ECIGs) based on data from two Italian databases (ISTAT and OssFAD). In both scenarios, ECIGs and HTPs were introduced in 2010 and 2016, respectively. We also examined a hypothetical scenario (GRADUAL QUITTING) in which all SFP users from the ISTAT scenario transitioned to complete cessation upon entering the simulation, instead of continuing to use SFPs. All scenarios with SFPs assumed that switching leads to risk reductions in the range of 80–95% of that achieved by quitting.

      RESULTS: The estimated decreases in SADs were 2.9% and 3.1% for the ISTAT and OssFAD scenarios, respectively, compared to the NULL scenario. In the GRADUAL QUITTING scenario, the estimated reduction in SADs was 3.14%. Compared to this hypothetical scenario, the ISTAT scenario achieved 92.3% of the potential health benefit.

      CONCLUSIONS: The PHIM was used to estimate the long-term population health impact of introducing two SFPs into the Italian market. Based on our assumptions, transitioning from cigarettes to SFPs would result in a substantial decrease in SADs in the evaluated scenarios.

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      Reduced Risk Products ("RRPs”) is the term we use to refer to products that present, are likely to present, or have the potential to present less risk of harm to smokers who switch to these products versus continuing smoking. PMI has a range of RRPs in various stages of development, scientific assessment and commercialization. All of our RRPs are smoke-free products that deliver nicotine with far lower quantities of harmful and potentially harmful constituents than found in cigarette smoke.